May 31, 2024 Orioles First Five Innings Money Line (-150)
Orioles First Five Innings Money Line (-150)
Aaron Civale Notes
Aaron Civale is 2-6-1 on the F5 ML in his last 9 starts. In the two wins, he allowed 7 and 3 ERs. He has a 6.80 ERA in the F5 innings of his starts this season. In his last 5 starts, he has a 116 AVG+ and a 111 WHIP+ while accumulating a 6.57 ERA. He has 1 F5 ML win in these 5 starts but was the game he allowed 7 ERs and his team just happened to score 8 in the F5. He is also getting walloped lately with a 117 HardHit%.
Civale has some terrible BvP numbers against a few Orioles hitters;
- Ryan Mountcastle: 5-6, 2 HRs, 2.833 OPS
- Cedric Mullins: 5-8, 2 HRs, 2.125 OPS
Civale has struggled greatly against lefties this season allowing a .511 SLG and a .376 wOBA. Baltimore has many hitters that should be able to take advantage with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O'Hearn, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Kyle Stowers all potentially in the lineup tonight.
Aaron Civale's most used pitch is his cutter at 30% usage. The Orioles have feasted on cutters with 6 batters in their potential lineup that bat over .300 against the cutter this season.
Worst of all, Civale has been much worse on the road this season than at home. He has a 7.40 road ERA, a 2.95 increase from home. He is allowing a .301 BAA and a .844 OPS contributing to a rise from 1.08 to 1.68 on the road. He is striking out fewer batters with a 9.6% decrease in K% and a 2.25 decrease in K/9. His BB/9 increases by 1.75 on the road, allowing more baserunners leading to his increase in ERA. The last 10 opponents to face the Rays when Civale starts have scored 4+ runs and 7 of the last 8 have scored 5+.
Albert Suarez Notes
Albert Suarez has been well above league average as a starter this season. In 4 starts, he has thrown 19.1 IP to a 1.86 ERA, 49 ERA-. He has a 96 AVG+ and 88 WHIP+ with a 18-5 K/BB ratio in these starts. He has a 3-1 F5 ML record as a starter and the only loss came when he allowed 3 unearned runs.
First Five Innings Notes
Baltimore is #1 in MLB in the F5 Algo at +2.08 while Tampa Bay is 15th at -0.42. Baltimore is +3.33 F5 over their last 3 games and the Rays are 16th in MLB at -0.34. The Orioles have a 5.00 to 1.33 advantage over the Rays in average F5 runs per game over the last 3. The Rays are 1-5-4 on the F5 ML over their last 10 and only average 1.2 runs per game in the F5.
Team Hitting Notes
Over the last 14 days, Baltimore is 10th in wRC+ at 106 while the Rays are 27th in MLB at 76. Tampa has a .196 team BA which is 29th in MLB and are 28th in team SLG. The Orioles have scored 32 more runs during this span and are 5th in the MLB in runs scored. The Rays are 26th in the MLB at 3.08 runs per game. The Orioles have 4 hitters that have a wRC+ over 135 vs RHP.