October 1 2024 MLB Playoffs Day 1 Betting Notes

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MLB Playoffs Day 1 Betting Notes

Detroit Tigers (+125) at Houston Astros (-150)

  • HOU is 9-0 SU in Framber Valdez's last 9 Home Starts
    • Opponents are averaging 1.56 RPG in this spot
    • Valdez's Home ERA is 0.83 runs lower than his Road ERA
  • HOU has won 7 straight games when Framber Valdez starts at Home against a team above .500
  • DET is 1-4 SU this season when Tarik Skubal starts as a Road Dog
  • HOU is 5th, DET is 23rd in wRC+ vs LHP this season
  • DET has won 8 straight games vs a LHP Starter
  • HOU has won 6 straight games vs a LHP Starter
  • Tarik Skubal has had 6+ Ks in 28 of 31 starts this season

Kansas City Royals (+130) at Baltimore Orioles (-155)

  • The Under is 5-1-1 this season when Cole Ragans starts as a Road Dog
    • Only one of these games has gone over 7
  • Adley Rutschman is 4-6 in his career vs Cole Ragans
  • Salvador Perez is 6-12 with a HR in his career vs Corbin Burnes
  • Corbin Burnes had a 1.20 ERA in 5 September starts, allowing 4 total ERs in 30.0 IP
  • BAL and KCR have played twice this season when Burnes and Ragans both started
    • BAL won both of these games
  • Cole Ragans allowed 7 ERs in 1.2 IP last outing vs BAL

New York Mets (+125) at Milwaukee Brewers (-150)

  • NYM is 1-5 SU in Luis Severino's last 6 Road starts
    • Opponents are averaging 6.67 RPG in this spot
    • Severino's Road ERA is 2.04 runs higher than his Home ERA
  • The Under is 4-1-1 in Freddy Peralta's last 6 Home starts
    • Opponents are averaging 2.83 RPG in this span
  • NYM is 1-5 SU this season vs MIL, averaging only 2.83 RPG
  • Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso are a combined 1-20 with 7 Ks vs Freddy Peralta
  • Luis Severino has a 5.15 ERA in 10 career Postseason Starts
  • Luis Severino has 5+ Ks in 10 straight starts

Atlanta Braves (+135) at San Diego Padres (-160)

  • ATL is 3-7 SU this season with a line > +110
  • SDP is 5-0 Su in their last 5 games with rest, allowing only 2.40 RPG
  • Michael King's ERA is 1.18 runs lower at Night than in Day Games
  • Michael King had a 1.57 ERA in 4 September starts
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