NFL Week 15 Gambling Notes

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NFL Week 15 Gambling Notes


Kansas City Chiefs (-4.0) at Cleveland Browns, O/U 43.5

  • KC is 16-1 SU, 13-4 ATS since 2019 as a Favorite coming off a Win scoring 24+ Points
    • KC is outscoring opponents 28-13 in this spot
    • KC is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 games in this spot
    • The Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 games in this spot
  • Since Week 8, teams coming off a game vs LAC are 0-6 SU, 0-6 ATS
    • These teams are being outscored 31-21 in this spot
    • 4 of these teams have lost outright as Favorites
    • KC beat LAC 19-17 in Week 14
  • KC is now 6-1 SU, 0-7 ATS since Week 7
    • KC has not won any of these games by more than 7 points
  • Since 2017, CLE is 2-15 SU against the AFC West
    • CLE is being outscored 28-20 in these games
    • CLE has los 6 straight outright and 4 straight ATS
  • Travis Kelce is 5th in the NFL in 1Q Receptions
    • Kelce is averaging 11.25 Yard per Reception in the 1Q
    • Kelce is averaging 17 1Q Receiving Yards per game

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans, O/U 46.5

  • TEN is 0-7-1 ATS this season when they rushed for 110+ yards in the previous game
    • TEN is being outscored 27-16 in this spot
    • TEN is allowing 131 Rush Yards per game in this spot
    • The Over is 8-0 in this spot as a 6pt Teaser Leg
  • The Under is 17-3 since 2023 when a team is coming off a game against JAX
    • Average O/U 43, Average Final Score 20-17
    • The Under is 12-1 in the last 13 games in this spot
    • TEN lost 10-6 to JAX last week
  • Since 2021, TEN is 1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS against the AFC North
    • The Under in these games is 7-0
      • Average Final Score 19-15
    • TEN is 0-6-1 on the 4Q ML in these games, has scored 6 total 4Q points
  • Since 2017, CIN is 7-1 ATS on the Road against the AFC South
    • CIN is 5-1-2 on the 4Q ML in these games

Washington Commanders (-7.5) at New Orleans Saints, O/U 43.5

  • WAS is 6-1-1 ATS this season when they rushed for 110+ yards in the previous game
    • WAS is 5-1 ATS in this spot as a Favorite
    • The Over has hit in 6 of the last 7 in this spot
  • Since Week 4, teams coming off a game vs TEN are 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS
    • These teams are outscoring opponents 24-15 in this spot
    • The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 games in this spot
    • WAS beat TEN 42-19 in their last game before their Bye in Week 14

Baltimore Ravens (-16.0) at New York Giants, O/U 42.5

  • The Over is 9-2 this season when BAL rushed for 110+ yards in the previous game
    • Average O/U 48, Average Final Score 31-25
    • The Over is 5-0 in this spot on the Road this season, averaging 61 total points
  • The Under is 7-1 this season when NYG rushed for 110+ yards in the previous game
    • Average O/U 42, Average Final Score 21-13
  • The Over is 6-0 since Week 2 for Home teams coming off a game against NO
    • Average O/U 44, Average Final Score 31-29
    • These games have an average OU Margin of 15.5 PPG
    • NYG lost 14-11 to NO in Week 14
  • The Under is 13-3 in NYG last 16 games against the AFC North
    • Average O/U 45, Average Final Score 22-18
    • The Under is 3-1 in these games when NYG plays BAL

Dallas Cowboys (+3.0) at Carolina Panthers, O/U 43.5

  • CAR is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
    • CAR has not lost by more than 7 points in any of these games
    • CAR is 3-0-2 on the 3Q ML in these games
  • Rico Dowdle is facing the worst Rush Defense in the NFL since Week 8
    • CAR is dead last in Rush Yards allowed at 194
    • Over the last 3 games, CAR is dead last in Opponent Yards per Rush at 6.4
    • Dowlde has had 86+ Rushing Yards in 3 straight, including 131 and 112 in his last 2
    • CAR is allowing 138 Rushing Yards per game on the season, 20 yards more than 31st

New York Jets (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 40.5

  • Since Week 4, teams coming off a game vs TEN are 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS
    • These teams are outscoring opponents 24-15 in this spot
    • The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 games in this spot
    • JAX beat TEN last week 10-6
  • Since Week 6, teams coming off a game vs MIA are 5-1-1 ATS
    • Favorites are 3-0 ATS in this spot this season
    • Road teams are 3-0-1 ATS in this spot this season
    • NYJ lost to MIA 32-26 in OT in Week 14
  • Road Favorites off a loss where they scored 20+ points are 15-3 SU this season
    • These teams are outscoring opponents 25-19 in this spot
    • The Under has hit in 4 straight in this spot
    • 7 straight Wins in this spot

Miami Dolphins (+3.0) at Houston Texans, O/U 46.5

  • The Under is 17-3 since 2023 when a team is coming off a game against JAX
    • Average O/U 43, Average Final Score 20-17
    • The Under is 12-1 in the last 13 games in this spot
    • HOU beat JAX 23-20 before their Week 14 Bye
  • MIA is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the AFC South
    • MIA is already 0-3 ATS in this spot this season
    • MIA is being outscored 22-17 in this spot
    • The Under has hit in 5 straight MIA Road games against the AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) at Denver Broncos, O/U 44.5

  • Since Week 5, teams coming off a game vs NE are 1-7 SU
    • IND beat NE 25-24 last week
    • IND is 4.5 Point Dogs at DEN
    • Teams coming off a Win vs NE are 0-6 SU since Week 5
  • DEN is 6-1 ATS this season on the Road
    • DEN is limiting opponents to 18.3 PPG in this spot
    • DEN is outrushing their opponents in this spot by 28.3 yards per game
  • Since 2017, the Under is 11-2 when DEN plays an AFC South opponent
    • Average O/U 42, Average Final Score 18-15
    • The Under has hit in 8 straight in this spot
  • Since 2017, IND is 5-1-1 in Road games against the AFC West
    • IND has won and covered in 5 straight

Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Detroit Lions, O/U 54.5

  • DET is 15-3-1 ATS since 2022 with a start time after 3pm ET
    • DET is already 5-1-1 ATS in this spot this season
    • DET is 7-0 SU in this spot this season
    • DET is 18-1 in this spot as a 6pt Teaser Leg
  • BUF is 10-4 ATS since 2023 with a start time after 3pm ET
    • BUF is 6-2 ATS in this spot this season 
    • The Under is 3-0 in this spot when BUF is a Dog
  • DET is 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when their opponent scored 28+ points in their previous game
    • Outscoring opponents 25.5-16.0
    • DET is 1-2-1 on the 1Q ML in this spot
    • DET is outscoring opponents 54-13 in the 2Q in these games

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 43.5

  • The Under is 6-1 in the last 7 games for teams who played CAR the previous week
    • Average O/U 45, Average Final Score 24-16
    • The last 4 in this spot have all gone under by an average of 6.25 points

New England Patriots (+6.0) at Arizona Cardinals, O/U 45.5

  • Since Week 5, teams coming off a game vs IND are 1-7 ATS
    • These teams are being outscored 24-19 in this spot
    • Teams are 0-3 ATS in this spot when on the Road

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0) at Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 45.5

  • The Over is 10-2 this season when a team is coming off a game vs LVR
    • Average O/U 44, Average Final Score 28-23
    • The Over is 6-0 when the team in this spot is a Dog
    • Teams in this spot are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS over the last 7 in this spot
    • TB beat LVR 28-13 in Week 14
  • The Over is 4-0 this season when TB plays a team above .500
    • Average O/U 46.5, Average Final Score 29.5-28.5
    • These 4 games have gone over the total by 11.5 PPG
  • Since 2022, LAC is 11-2 ATS when their opponent scored 28+ points in their previous game
    • LAC is holding opponents to 18.5 PPG in this spot
    • LAC is 7-0 ATS in this spot as a Favorite, 3-0 SU and ATS already this season
    • The Under is 10-3 in this spot, but the over has hit in 3 of the last 4

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks, O/U 45.5

  • The Under is 12-3 since 2021 when SEA played an opponent that scored 28+ points in their previous game
    • Average O/U 46, Average Final Score 24-18
    • This spot is already 4-0 this season
    • SEA is 12-3 in this spot as a 6pt Teaser Leg
    • SEA is averaging only 86.1 Rush Yards per game in this spot
  • SEA is 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall
    • SEA is outscoring opponents 23-15.5 in this spot
    • SEA has won all 4 of these games outright as a Dog
    • SEA is 4-0 on the 2Q ML in these games

Chicago Bears (+7.0) at Minnesota Vikings, O/U 43.5

  • Aaron Jones has 11 touchdowns in his last 10 games vs CHI
    • Jones has scored in 7 of these 10 games
    • CHI is allowing the 3rd most rushing yards per game since Week 8
    • CHI is 28th in Opponent Yards per Rush over the last 3 weeks
    • Jones just had 22-106-1 against CHI 3 weeks ago
  • Running Backs against CHI over the last 3 games;
    • MIN: 27 Carries - 124 Yards - 4.6 YPC - 1 TD
    • DET: 33 Carries - 194 Yards - 5.9 YPC - 0 TD
    • SF: 34 Carries - 131 Yards - 3.9 YPC - 3 TD

Atlanta Falcons (-4.0) at Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 44.5

  • LVR is 1-7 SU in games played after 3pm ET this season
    • LVR has lost 5 in a row in this spot
  • LVR has now lost 9 games in a row
    • LVR is being outscored 29-17 in these games
    • LVR is 0-4 on the 1Q ML in their last 4 games
  • ATL is 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games
    • ATL is being outscored 29-14 in these games
    • ATL is 0-4 on the 2Q ML in these games

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